This season’s Premier League title race is the closest we have had in years, with Manchester City and Arsenal set to go head-to-head one final time as the destiny of the championship is decided this weekend.

The champions hold the advantage over the Gunners, who are relying on a final-day slip-up from Pep Guardiola’s juggernauts to snatch a first title in 20 years.

Liverpool squandered their opportunity to have their say after falling away following defeat to Everton, while draws against West Ham and Aston Villa have seen them settle for third in Jurgen Klopp’s final season.

By the season’s end, it could well come down to goal difference – which has been a deciding factor once before since the beginning of the Premier League era.

Current Premier League table

City’s win over Tottenham Hotspur in midweek means both teams finishing on the same number of points is perhaps less likely, but a City draw would hand Arsenal the opportunity to win the title, as Mikel Arteta’s side head into the final weekend with the most slender of goal-difference advantages.

However, the odds are firmly in favour of this year’s title race being one of the closest in Premier League history.

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Here is a detailed look at the closest title races in Premier League history:

9 2007/08 – 2 points

Manchester United edge three-horse race to record back-to-back titles

Manchester United were the undisputed juggernauts of the 1990s and 2000s in England. 11 of their 13 Premier League crowns were won during this period, and while they boast some of the widest title-winning margins in the top flight, the 2007/08 campaign was an intense and hard-fought battle.

Arsenal had led for a large part of the season, before a succession of draws and a defeat to title rivals Chelsea saw them relinquish top spot.

That allowed United and the Blues to swoop in, with both sides taking the race to the final day, when the Red Devils’ win over Wigan Athletic secured another championship.

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8 2013/14 – 2 points

Liverpool fluff their lines as Manchester City snatch the silverware

This was meant to be the season Liverpool ended their decades-long wait for an English league title, having last tasted success in 1990. While they would eventually do so at a canter (their triumph in 2019/20 was the joint-second-highest winning margin), they arguably should have edged this classic title race some six years prior.

This was another year where Arsenal had set the pace, and had been on top far longer than any other side. The fact that the Gunners still finished just seven points off the top in fourth shows just how close it was.

Liverpool were set to be the beneficiaries of Arsenal’s collapse, and led by five points with three games to go having reeled off ten wins on the trot.

But that infamous 2-0 defeat to Chelsea gave the initiative to Manchester City, before their 3-3 draw to Crystal Palace effectively handed Manuel Pellegrini’s side the title on a silver platter. The Citizens’ final-day win over West Ham United confirmed the Reds’ failure.

7 1994/95 – 1 point

Blackburn seal first Premier League despite final-day defeat

The Premier League title has been decided by a single point on six occasions. The first such instance was in the 1994/95 campaign, when a Blackburn Rovers side led by Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton looked to deny Manchester United a third straight top-flight crown.

Having led by eight points with six games to go, it seemed a formality that Rovers would get what they needed from their remaining matches and snatch the title from United’s grasp.

However, they won just two of their following five, with United closing the gap to two points whilst having a better goal difference, meaning one more slip-up could let the champions back in.

And in one of the most memorable final days in top-flight history, Blackburn’s last-minute defeat to Liverpool was academic in the end, as United were unable to break down a stubborn West Ham at Upton Park, with goalkeeper Ludek Miklosko determined to keep the scores level after a string of fine saves.

6 1997/98 – 1 point

Arsenal race clear of United to spark Wenger/Ferguson rivalry

While this particular title race didn’t have any final-day drama, the story of the season was Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal chasing down a United side stretching clear for a third successive championship.

In fact, the Gunners would steer clear themselves and seal the title with two games to spare. That’s despite United leading the table by 11 points at the start of March, albeit with Arsenal having games in hand.

The pivotal moment was perhaps Arsenal’s win at Old Trafford – a feat seldom achieved since – which left the Gunners with plenty of work to do, but with their fate in their hands.

Their win over the Red Devils was the second of a record ten straight wins in the Premier League, with the last of those against Everton sealing the title, creating an intense top-flight rivalry and one of the most memorable commentary lines of all time…

5 1998/99 – 1 point

United outlast Gunners in titanic tussle on way to treble

A superb title race that saw two foes go toe to toe, the 1998/99 season saw Manchester United hold their nerve and finish ahead of Arsenal, who finished second despite conceding just 17 goals all season.

Chelsea were also major players in the race, and briefly led the table over the New Year period. The Blues stayed in contention having only lost three times – the same amount as United and one fewer than Arsenal – and finished four points off the top.

Ultimately, Arsenal drew far too often, as despite their defeat in their penultimate game against Leeds United being their first for 19 games, they went into the final day needing to beat Aston Villa and require a favour from rivals Spurs at Old Trafford.

A nail-biting finish saw Les Ferdinand put Tottenham one up, but United struck either side of the break to get the result they needed, securing the first leg of their historic treble in the process.

4 2009/10 – 1 point

Chelsea demolish Wigan to see off Man United challenge

The climax to the 2009/10 season was just the second time since 1999 that the title was decided on the final day – though Chelsea made extremely light work of Wigan Athletic on what ought to have been a tense afternoon at Stamford Bridge.

Arsenal threatened to make it a three-way fight for the Premier League, but fell away in April having closed the gap to just two points at one stage.

The battle between Chelsea and Manchester United went down to the wire, though a huge reason for that was their controversial victory at Old Trafford, which saw Didier Drogba net a winner from an offside position that even today’s VAR officials would struggle to miss.

The advantage Chelsea gained in that game proved pivotal, with Carlo Ancelotti’s men merely needing a victory over the Latics to win the Premier League in the Italian’s first season.

They put eight past their hapless opponents to secure a fourth English league title in style.

3 2018/19 – 1 point

Man City’s perfect end to the season denies invincible-chasing Liverpool

One of the most impressive title battles this country has ever seen took place not too long ago, with Manchester City and Liverpool relentlessly exchanging blows as two of Europe’s biggest powerhouses.

While it was Man City who prevailed, Liverpool were the team chasing all the history, having threatened to emulate Arsenal’s Invincibles by going unbeaten while chasing a 100-point season.

Unfortunately, one game would put paid to those efforts, with their clash away at Manchester City denying them the chance to remain unbeaten.

And despite winning 13 of their next 17 matches, including each of their last nine, the juggernaut that is Man City was more than a match for the Reds’ title-worthy run, as they won 14 on the spin to deny the Jurgen Klopp’s side the league.

Pep Guardiola’s men even went behind on the final day against Brighton, but roared back to defend their crown, leaving Liverpool to settle for the Champions League after recording the most points for a runner-up.

2 2021/22 – 1 point

City pip Liverpool again after incredible final-day comeback

These two were at it again three years later, when another battle came down to the final day with City having an advantage that they could easily have thrown away.

Both sides had exceptional campaigns once again, with third-placed Chelsea ending up closer to 7th-placed West Ham than they were to the summit.

Liverpool went unbeaten throughout the first half of 2022, avoiding defeat for 18 Premier League games, winning 15. City were just as imperious, losing once since the start of November, creating a showdown with Aston Villa as they needed a win to guarantee another title.

City’s penchant for some late-season drama was exposed once more, as they found themselves 2-0 down with less than 15 minutes to go. A crazy five minutes followed, with Rodri and an Ilkay Gundogan brace completing the comeback in double-quick time.

The Reds were left licking their wounds once more after another season good enough to win many a title.

1 2011/12 – 0 points

City win title on goal difference after the ultimate last-gasp goal

It remains the Premier League’s most dramatic title conclusion, and with good reason. The local rivalry, the shock comeback, red card controversy, and the latest of late winners, upsetting Fergie in the process.

Amid all of this was the closest title fight the Premier League has ever produced, though it needed a Manchester United late-season collapse to even make it possible.

With six games to go, United led by eight points, with City’s title hopes seemingly in tatters. But the Red Devils would take just four points from their next three games, and their late April meeting with City gave the challengers, who had won each of their following three games by an aggregate of 12-1, the chance to edge ahead on goal difference.

Vincent Kompany’s header in the derby had the title heading to Eastlands – all they needed was to win their final two matches, with City now boasting an eight-goal advantage at the top.

The topsy-turvy clash against QPR is forever one for the history books, with Pablo Zabaleta’s opener cancelled out by goals from Djibril Cisse and Jamie Mackie, which came either side of Joey Barton’s red card.

We all know what happened next: Edin Dzeko’s injury-time header and the most crucial of goals from Sergio Aguero sent the Etihad into raptures.

However, what is perhaps less discussed about this momentous afternoon is that it remains the only time the Premier League had been decided on goal difference, with City’s winning margin being a mere eight goals.

Will we see something similar this year? With everything so tight at the top, goal difference could easily come into play. Either way, we are set for a fight to the wire, which could well go down as one of the tightest title races of all time.